The Punt Return Podcast: NFL Championship Round Betting Review
We had a pretty good week betting the NFL Championship Round on The Punt Return Podcast! Here’s how it unfolded.
NFC Championship Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers
What we said would happen…
We predicted a high scoring affair (over 51.5) in the cold Lambeau climate, seeing Rodgers and the Packers start hot, but ultimately be run down as the dink-and-dunk happy Bucs offense exploits an overrated and conservative Packers defense. The Bucs get pressure through a Bakhtiari-less Packers offensive line and continue to thrive away from home as they advance to a historic home super bowl appearance, covering the +3.5 spread in the process.
In the battle of Brady vs Rodgers, we expect the trend of recent times to continue. Brady’s support crew to step up when needed, and Rodgers’ to ultimately let him down.
Selection & Analysis:
Tampa Bay +3.5;
Total points over 51.5;
HT/FT Double with GB to start hot and lead at halftime with the Bucs to come home strong for the win;
Tom Brady continues his love affair with targeting running backs through the air in the playoffs (ala James White), hitting Leonard Fournette for over 22.5 receiving yards;
Brady relies on his old New England connection, utilising Rob Gronkowski for over 27.5 receiving yards;
Rodgers’ 3rd eye is as sharp as ever, hitting TE Robert Tonyan for over 32.5 receiving yards.
What actually happened…
Tampa established the balanced ground and air attack early, with a 39-yard dime from Brady helping them to a 21-10 half-time lead. Things went from bad to worse for Green Bay at the start of the second half, with an Aaron Jones fumble leading to Brady’s 3rd passing touchdown for the day via an 8-yard connection with tight end, Cameron Brate, extending the lead to 18-points. Green Bay rallied back with three interceptions in three consecutive drives, allowing the Packers to cut the deficit to just 8-points through Rodgers passing touchdowns to Tonyan and Davante Adams. A controversial decision from coach Matt LaFleur to kick the field goal on 4th and goal (8 yards from the endzone) with 2:09 remaining did not age well, as the Green Bay offense never saw the field again, allowing Tampa to overcome three Tom Brady interceptions and a sub-75 passer rating to become the first team to play in a home super bowl.
As for the QB battle, Aaron Rodgers becomes the first QB in NFL history to lose four straight Conference Championships, while Brady’s record in Conference Championships when he throws 3+ INTs goes to 2-0 (other QBS combined 7-23). Make of that what you will.
?Lock of the Week: Over 51 ✅@jwyeNFL:
TB +3.5 ✅
TB moneyline ✅@nicksplitter
TB +3.5 ✅
Tonyan 4+ recs ✅? A good day so far! #NFLPicks#NFL #NFLTwitter #NFLPlayoffs https://t.co/79KDyGQafS
— The Punt Return ?? (@PuntReturnPod) January 24, 2021
Results:
Tampa Bay covered the spread for a 5-point win;
Total points hits the over with 57 for the game;
Tampa Bay were the ones to start hot, scoring touchdowns on 3 of their 5 first half drives to race out to an 11 point lead at the main break;
Although he was targeted 7 times for 5 receptions, Leonard Fournette was unable to get off the leash, recording a measly 19 receiving yards and falling under his line for receiving yards;
It may not have come in the fashion expected, but a well-designed TE screen allowed ‘Gronk’ to pick up a crucial 29-yards on 2nd-and-11 with 6:11 remaining in the fourth quarter, burning some clock and hitting his receiving over on his only catch (and target) for the day;
While he did find space in the endzone for an 8-yard touchdown reception in the third quarter as part of Green Bay’s comeback bid, Tonyan’s impact on the contest was limited to just 22 yards on 4 catches from 4 targets.
AFC Championship Game: Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
What we said would happen…
The only thing we could agree on was that this was going to be close. Buffalo will try and exploit Kansas City’s 31st ranked rush defence and keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands, while the Chiefs will rely on their high-powered offensive threats in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to book a spot in the big dance. It’s hard to bet against the Reid-Mahomes combination at just -3.5, but don’t be surprised to see the best-team in the back half of this season in Buffalo move on to Tampa.
Selection & Analysis:
Kansas City -3.5;
Steer clear of the 54.5 total points line (Nick went OVER, Josh went UNDER);
Travis Kelce to continue his reign of dominance with over 90.5 receiving yards;
Dawson Knox to come up big with over 49.5 receiving yards;
Buffalo to attack the Kansas City rushing defence, with Devin Singletary gashing for over 80.5 rushing yards;
The Buffalo bromance to continue as Allen finds connects with Diggs for over 9.5 receptions.
What actually happened;
The Bills had the first quarter from heaven, jumping out to a 9–0 lead on the back of a 51-yard Tyler Bass field goal, and a 3-yard touchdown connection between Josh Allen and Dawson Knox following a Mecole Hardman muffed punt. That was enough to wake Kansas City out of their slumber. The Chiefs – led by the meticulous Patrick Mahomes (29/38 – 325 yards, 3 TDs), would go on to outscore the Bills 38–6 from that point onwards, resulting in a 38–24 win. Tyreek Hill (9 receptions, 172 yards) and Travis Kelce (13 receptions, 118 yards) had their way with the Bills defense, demonstrating just how much of a headache they are for opposing defences. The Chiefs were dominant – ruthless – as they move one win closer to becoming the first team to win back-to-back Lombardi trophies since the 04-05 New England Patriots.
#BUFvsKC ??#AFCChampionshipGame @jwyeNFL:
SGM: Kelce O95.5 & 1TD ✅@nicksplitter
Over 54 ✅#NFL #NFLPlayoffs #NFLPicks https://t.co/NCYyUZyowI— The Punt Return ?? (@PuntReturnPod) January 25, 2021
Results:
Kansas City dominate with a 14-point win;
The offenses were the talk of the town with 62 points put on the board;
Travis Kelce dominated the Bills defense and was simply uncoverable on his way to 118 receiving yards on 9 receptions from 15 targets, including 2 touchdowns;
Dawson Knox had one of his best receiving games of the year, accumulating 42-yards on 6 receptions from 8 targets, as well as bringing in just his 4th touchdown on the year. Unfortunately, it was not enough, as he did fall agonisingly short of the 49.5 yard spread;
While Buffalo were able to exploit the Kansas City rushing defense through the legs of Josh Allen, Devin Singletary was unable to do the same as he recorded a meagre 17 yards on just 6 carries;
Josh Allen had eyes for his Buffalo buddy in Stefon Diggs, however Kansas City’s pass defence were able to keep the connection in check, limiting Diggs to 77 receiving yards on 6 receptions from 11 targets.
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