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Stats Insider: So, Who’s Going to Win Super Bowl LV?

So, who's going to win Super Bowl LV?

The only requirement to understanding just how incredible it is that we’ve even reached this stage of the NFL season is a pulse.

Not only has the United States been the epicentre of Covid, but its own internal politics have reached fever point this year, culminating in an attempted coup (of sorts) last week along with yet another impeachment of their out-going president.

While last week’s storming of the Capitol shook the country, the NFL train chugged along, pulling in this past weekend for Wildcard weekend, while it’s next stop will be the divisional-round of play-offs, meaning we have just four teams remaining in each conference.

RELATED: 2020 NFL Playoffs State of Play & Wildcard Weekend

This week on The Punt Return Podcast:
* Is ‘Big Ben’ done?
* Punting is for cowards (ft. Titans & Steelers)
* Philly fires Doug Pederson
* Frank Reich’s ‘missed opportunity’ nightmare

Let’s take a look at each of the remaining contestants, first peeking in at projections from the Stats Insider Super Bowl model, while also highlighting some of the key factors underpinning each franchise’s success.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

To Win Super Bowl LV 26.8%

The reigning Super Bowl champs, with one of the MVP favourites and the league’s strongest regular season record at 14-2, it’s little wonder then that the Kansas City Chiefs are favourites to win it all again this season.

As for their super strength, well there’s little doubt that mantle belongs to Patrick Mahomes. As well as boasting a ridiculous 42-9 record as an NFL starter, Mahomes keeps adding strings to his bow, this season registering a career-high for accuracy (66.3%) and career-low for interception rate (1%), while also tossing a lazy 38 touchdowns in the process.

While it’s equally valid to volunteer head coach Andy Reid or Offensive Coordinator Eric Bieniemy as playing as-vital roles in this rampaging offence, the fact is that without Mahomes in the pilot seat, we simply wouldn’t have this juggernaut on our hands.

GREEN BAY PACKERS

To Win Super Bowl LV 18.5%

At 37-years of age, Aaron Rodgers is as important now than he’s ever been to the Green Bay Packers. While sure, Rodgers has already won a Super Bowl and twice been crowned league MVP, he’s this season positively electrified the league’s most dominant offense, firing home a league-leading 48 touchdowns, while throwing in excess of 4,000 yards for a third-straight season. Perhaps most impressive was Rodgers’ gargantuan 121.5 QB rating which was the highest the league has seen since 2011, when Rodgers posted a 122.5 figure.

While the Packers are also bringing an incredibly strong run game to the table – and in Davante Adams perhaps have the NFL’s standout receiver – it’s quite obvious that it’s Rodgers who runs the show in Cheese Town, and without him, the Packers simply wouldn’t be the NFC’s favourite to return to its first Super Bowl in ten years.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

To Win Super Bowl LV 16.4%

Speaking of veteran quarterbacks, Drew Brees will celebrate his 42nd birthday this week, and then days later run out for his 18th post-season start.

Like Rodgers, and Brady in Tampa, this trio of exceptional athletes won’t slow down, with Brees this season delivering yet another season of pin-point accuracy, completing better than 70% of his passes for a fifth-straight campaign.

And while Brees was once again excellent this season, it’s actually been the Saints defense that’s fuelled the franchise, ranking top-5 in both points and yards conceded, while also producing 26 turnovers – the NFL’s third-best return.

However, what’s been most impressive about the Saints defense is how much of a team effort it’s been, with 10 of its defenders starting at least 13 games, speaking to a unit which has remained healthy and reaped the rewards of durability and continuity.

While Trey Henderson has been an utter revelation, entering the season with just 3 starts to his name and leaving with a team-high 13 sacks, their impenetrable secondary should be getting just as many
plaudits. The likes of Marshon Lattimore and Malcolm Jenkins lead a core that produced an NFL-high 18 interceptions, while limiting opponent quarterbacks to just 59.8% accuracy – a figure
bettered only by the Pittsburgh Steelers.

BUFFALO BILLS

To Win Super Bowl LV 15.4%

The New England Patriots 11-straight seasons of absolute AFC East dominance are over, with the Buffalo Bills finally stepping up and snatching the belt away – at least for now, anyway.

Only the Chiefs posted a better record than Buffalo’s 13-3, while the Bills were turbo-charged by an offense which smashed a franchise record, dialling up 501 total points. They also watched on as their heavily maligned QB, Josh Allen, morphed into a star, throwing 37 touchdowns and 4,544 yards, also setting new Buffalo records in the process.

Most importantly, the Bills got better and more dangerous as the season progressed, and enter the second week of the playoffs on a 7-game winning streak. Credit must also go to a vastly improved defense of late, which has conceded just 19.1 points per game during their win streak, well down on the 26.5 it was surrendering through the team’s first 10 games.

BALTIMORE RAVENS

To Win Super Bowl LV 9.2%

No, the Baltimore Ravens haven’t look as menacing as they did over the course of last season’s 14-2campaign. With that said, they’ve already accomplished something they hadn’t done in 8 years
by winning a playoff game. Most importantly, Baltimore is peaking at precisely the right time, sporting a 6-game winning streak that’s seen their defense concede just 17 points per game during that run. 17 points has has also been their average margin of victory during their surge.

While their defense has come to the party at the right time, reigning league MVP, Lamar Jackson, is also starting to get white hot. While Jackson’s overall season hasn’t matched the totality of his 2019 masterpiece, he once again ran for over 1,000 yards while also registering 7 touchdowns. Speaking of Jackson’s dual threat, he’s ran for at least 80 yards in 5 of his last 6 matches, which was a number he breached in just 2 of his first 10 games this season.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

To Win Super Bowl LV 7.9%

It’s funny what adding a 6-time Super Bowl winning, living legend of contemporary sports can do for your franchise. After 12-straight seasons in the playoff wilderness, it took just one Tom Brady season
to return the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the post-season, while also winning their first playoff game in 18  years courtesy of eliminating Washington last week.

The ‘Brady effect’ has been immense in South Florida, with the 43-year old throwing 40 touchdowns (his second best return). And while his interception rate of 2% was as high as it’s been in 9 years,
Brady was throwing more often and much deeper than he has in recent times with his 4,633 yards actually his 5th highest return from his 19 seasons under centre.

While the Bucs have packed an aggressive defense all year under the brilliant stewardship of Defensive Coordinator, Todd Bowles, terrorising attacks with 48 sacks and blitzing on a massive 39% of plays,
the fact is Brady remains the biggest story both in Tampa, and perhaps the entire NFL.

LA RAMS

To Win Super Bowl LV 3.4%

There’s numerous candidates responsible for the LA Rams still existing as a live Super Bowl threat, yet it’s hard to go past head coach Sean McVay. In his 4 years as an NFL head coach, McVay has led the Rams to the playoffs 3 times, and while this year’s version doesn’t shape as spectacular as the one he took to the Super Bowl in his second year, it’s one that been configured entirely differently which once again speaks to McVay’s versatility.

The Rams have received precious little out of Jared Goff, who posted a forgettable 90.0 QB rating which easily ranks dead-last among all remaining playoff QBs. Instead, McVay has managed to cobble together an incredibly strong, multi-faceted running game (2,018 yards, 19 TD’s) while he’s also been bailed out by Aaron Donald, who only strengthened his status as the game’s most predatory defender in 2020.

Not only did Donald dial up a double-digit sack tally for a fourth-straight season, but this year he actually had some help on that side of the ball. Former Chicago Bear, Leonard Floyd, enjoyed an incredible first season in LA, registering 10.5 sacks and 19 QB hits, and with the Rams generating so much heat up front, their secondary was able to completely smother opponents. They conceded league-lows in both passing yards (2,051) and passing TD’s (17) while their opponents were generating just 4.6 yards per play which was also the league’s strongest overall figure.

CLEVELAND BROWNS

To Win Super Bowl LV 2.4%

No, this is not a fake news. The Cleveland Browns actually made the playoffs, and have already advanced, not only knocking off the Steelers in Pittsburgh, but also setting a new NFL-record by pouring in 28 first quarter points in that triumph.

After 17 straight seasons without playoffs, and after cycling through no less than a dozen head coaches, the Browns may have finally hit gold with Kevin Stefanski, who helped the franchise post its most points in 56 years, while seemingly unlocking Baker Mayfield’s potential. The 2018 #1 pick put together his most complete season in the NFL, posting a career-high 95.9 QB rating, helped enormously by getting his interceptions down from 21 to 8 this season.

While the Browns are the NFL’s absolute Super Bowl dark horse – and will start double-digit dogs against Kansas City this week – their story is an absolute remarkable one which should be celebrated far and wide.

This week on The Punt Return Podcast:
* Is ‘Big Ben’ done?
* Punting is for cowards (ft. Titans & Steelers)
* Philly fires Doug Pederson
* Frank Reich’s ‘missed opportunity’ nightmare

This article was first published at Stats Insider and was reproduced with permission.

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