2020 NFL Playoffs State of Play & Wildcard Weekend

It’s that time again… the best time of the year… the NFL Playoffs!

When the 2020 NFL campaign kicked off in September, we weren’t even sure we’d get a completed season, so to have reached Game 256 with just a couple of delays and postponements, and without a single cancelation, is a huge relief and welcome distraction from the horror that was “2020”.

It wasn’t all fun and games, though. The season was marred with COVID-19 restrictions, limited fan attendance, and injury striking some of the league’s best and brightest.

Quarterback battles were at the forefront for many franchises, with discussion around the Chicago Bears (Mitch Trubisky & Nick Foles), Miami Dolphins (Ryan Fitzpatrick & Tua Tagovailoa), New Orleans Saints (erm, Taysom Hill & Jameis Winston), Washington Football Team (Dwayne Haskins & Alex Smith) and Philadelphia Eagles (Carson Wentz & Jalen Hurts) regularly featuring amongst the sport’s most popular punditry.

The 2020 NFL MVP looks a race in two, with Kansas City’s 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes duelling all season with Green Bay’s 2x MVP Aaron Rodgers for the 2020 honours, with Seattle’s talisman, Russell Wilson, and Buffalo’s most improved, Josh Allen, also in the discussion during periods of the season.

Heading into the 2021 season, we already know there will be at least six franchises with a new Head Coach, with the Houston Texans, Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons making a change in-season, while the New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars and LA Chargers all made their mark on ‘Black Monday’. Question marks still surround other coaches such as the Eagles’ Doug Pederson, while Cincinnati and Minnesota will also be asking questions of Zac Taylor and Mike Zimmer respectively. Let the carousel begin!

But first, it’s time for the real stuff – the 2020 NFL Playoffs – and before we get stuck into the Wildcard Weekend games, let’s take a quick look at the lay of the land in each conference, and how they ended up the way they did.

Listen to The Punt Return Podcast – Australia’s #1 NFL Analysis Podcast – on Spotify, iTunes or wherever you get your podcasts.

NFC

#1 GREEN BAY PACKERS (W-L 13-3)

Perhaps a surprise #1 seed despite their 13-3 record a year ago, the Green Bay Packers were even better this season, as Aaron Rodgers shot back into MVP form. The Packers were unstoppable on offense, putting up the most points in the NFL and the 3rd highest points differential (+140) in the league. Rodgers started every game, posting career highs in completion percentage (70.7% – #1 in the league), touchdown passes (48 – #1) and touchdown rate (9.1% – #1), while also leading all NFL quarterbacks in Passer Rating (121.5) and QBR (84.40). It wasn’t ALL Rodgers, though, with WR Davante Adams leading the league in touchdown receptions (18) and average receiving yards per game (98.1) while RB Aaron Jones ran for a career-high 1,104 yards as well as running in 9 touchdowns.

#2 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (12-4)

The pre-season favourite for many, the New Orleans Saints started slowly, losing two of their first three games which reignited the fuel in the “life after Drew Brees” conversational fire. Their response was to lose just two more games for the rest of the season (by a combined 6 points) leaving the rest of the NFL on notice. Despite missing Brees for four games (New Orleans went 3-1 with Taysom Hill) and #1 receiver Michael Thomas for nine, the Saints still put up the NFL’s second highest points differential off the back of an incredible defense (#2 on Football Outsiders’s DVOA) and a uniquely efficient offense.

#3 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (12-4)

It was a strangely successful season for the Seahawks, who improved on their 2019 campaign by one win to finish 12-4 in the regular season. It was QB Russell Wilson who got the ball rolling, putting up incredible numbers early to inspire the hashtag #LetRussCook, and leading the Seahawks to five in a row to start the season before an overtime loss to the Arizona Cardinals. While some questionable play-calling from Pete Carroll led to a quieter second half, Wilson still put up 40 touchdown passes (= #2), and threw for 4200+ passing yards for the second time in his nine-year career.

#4 WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (7-9)

The NFL rulebook states that the winners of each division are entitled to and deserve an NFL Playoffs spot – that much is clear. When the winner of a division finishes with a 7-9 record, the words “entitled” and “deserve” don’t necessarily align. The NFC East was a clusterf*ck of the highest order, with all four franchises playing lacklustre, uninspiring football, with Washington just clutching defeat from the jaws of victory one less time than the New York Giants for the division title. It wasn’t ALL bad for the WFT, with a menacing pass-rush led by Defensive Rookie of the Year favourite, Chase Young, who lead all rookies in sacks (7.5), forced fumbles (five) and tackles against the run for loss or no gain (11). Meanwhile, QB Alex Smith made the king of all comebacks, returning from leg injuries that nearly cost him not just his career, but his life.

#5 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (11-5)

A new era for the Bucs, who overnight went from pretender to contender, welcoming in  future Hall of Famer and 6x Super Bowl winner, Tom Brady, while also adding his former Patriots running mate, Rob Gronkowski. The moves shored up an offense already packed with talent, in addition to 2019’s #6th ranked defensive unit. That defense went one better in 2020 (#5 on Football Outsiders’ DVOA), while the offense rocketed up the rankings, from #23rd last season to #3 in 2020, behind only the Packers and Kansas City Chiefs. As for Brady? 4600+ passing yards and a 40:12 TD:INT ratio means we should expect at least another year out of his 43-year old arm. While ‘Gronk’ started slowly after a full year away from the league, he still finished with 623 receiving yards (10th amongst TEs) and 7 touchdowns (= #4) in the regular season.

#6 LOS ANGELES RAMS (10-6)

The Rams somehow posted a Top-10 offense and earned a wild card spot without a competent passing game. While Jared Goff did throw for only just under 4000 yards, his 20 touchdowns were his lowest number since his rookie season, while he also tossed 13 interceptions – not the kind of output one expects from a Sean McVay offense, or a former #1 draft pick. In 2020 it was – surprisingly – the ground game that picked up the offensive slack, without a standard #1 back. The Rams three-headed beast of Darrell Henderson, Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown rushed for 1,668 yards and 12 TDs, while the LA defense also stepped up, posting the league’s best numbers throughout the second half of the season.  

#7 CHICAGO BEARS (8-8)

Where does one start with the Chicago Bears? Sitting pretty at 5-1 (although not playing inspiring football) through six weeks, it looked as if the Bears were riding the wave of an elite defensive unit on their way to the NFL Playoffs. Inexplicably, however, the Bears then lost six in a row, including games to non-playoff bound teams such as the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions. While Chicago did finish 8-8 for a second consecutive season, it was enough to earn them a wild card spot this time around, thanks to the expanded NFL Playoffs structure. Strangely, it was the Bears offense which finally bailed them out, with their flip-flopping at QB finally settling on Mitchell Trubisky who posted a 97.8 passer rating over the last 6 weeks, playing an instrumental role in their return to the post-season.  

THE REST

It was the Arizona Cardinals and Minnesota Vikings who put up the strongest fight for a wild card position, with Kyler Murray providing highlight after highlight from the quarterback position in the desert. It helped that the Cardinals welcomed the #1 receiver in the game during the offseason in DeAndre Hopkins, who helped steady Kliff Kingsbury’s serenely chaotic offense, producing 1,407 receiving yards (#2) along with 6 touchdowns. The Vikings taunted and teased all season, and while they did knock off the NFC’s #1 seed and bitter rival Green Bay Packers, it remains to be seen whether Mike Zimmer will remain in Minneapolis for an eighth season.

The San Francisco 49ers showed plenty of heart to play through an incredible injury list on both offense and defense and still win 6 games, while Matt Rhule’s young Carolina Panthers team showed they have plenty of upside over the next few years. The New York Giants nearly pipped Washington to the NFC East division title despite a 6-10 record, while the big talking point of the off-season will be the Philadelphia Eagles’ 2021 starting quarterback after Carson Wentz’s horrible season and ultimate demotion in favour of Jalen Hurts.

RELATED: Have the Philadelphia Eagles Let Carson Wentz Down?

The Dallas Cowboys will be hoping their injury issues abate for another crack in 2021, while the Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons will likely look completely different following the dual terminations of their respective HC/GM combinations.

 

AFC

#1 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (14-2)

Reigning Super Bowl champs. A former NFL MVP at QB performing at MVP level… again. The best record in the NFL… again. Is there anything the Kansas City Chiefs can’t do? The second-best offense (according to DVOA) was once again piloted by superstar QB, Patrick Mahomes, who just seemed to cruise to 4,740 passing yards (#2) and 38 touchdowns in the air, which was good for an 82.9 QBR (#2) – the highest of his short but superb career so far.

#2 BUFFALO BILLS (13-3)

Was there a more distinct improver in 2020 than the Buffalo Bills? The Bills won 10 games last season, but were extremely impressive in increasing that number by three this time around. What was once a dour defensive team with a huge question mark hanging over their QB became an offensive juggernaut, with QB Josh Allen having by far the best campaign of his short career. This team was able to overpower their opposition week after week, with new WR addition, Stefon Diggs, leading the league in both receptions and receiving yards. While the defense did take a step back in the first half of the season, they stepped up to get back to the Top-10 unit we’ve come to expect from Sean McDermott’s team in the second half.

#3 PITTSBURGH STEELERS (12-4)

The Steelers looked unbeatable for most of the season, before COVID-19 fixturing issues and strength of schedule caught up to them, losing four of the final five games after their 11-0 start. With “Big Ben” Roethlisberger back steering the ship, the Pittsburgh offense was night and day from what we saw last year with Roethlisberger side-lined, while the Steelers’ defense was as menacing and dangerous as ever, fuelled by a league-leading 15 sacks from the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year favourite, TJ Watt.

#4 TENNESSEE TITANS (11-5)

One of the rare franchises rated as elite in both pass and run offense by Football Outsiders, this Titans team really is “Jekyll & Hyde” conceding the ninth most points on defense in the league. With Ryan Tanehill and now back-to-back rushing king, Derrick Henry, the catalysts in Tennessee – and some fantastic play-calling from HC Mike Vrabel –  the Titans can be confident of putting up points no matter who they face.

#5 BALTIMORE RAVENS (11-5)

The Ravens are one of three contenders from the incredibly tough AFC North. While nowhere near as dominant a regular season as 2019, Baltimore shifted into gear late and now hold a 5-game winning streak heading into the NFL Playoffs. Reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson became the first QB in NFL history with two 1000+ rushing yard campaigns, while the Ravens are just one of four teams to boast both a Top-11 offense and defense.

#6 CLEVELAND BROWNS (11-5)

Will they? Won’t they? The Cleveland Browns teased their success-starved fanbase all season, before finally delivering – in the final week of the season – a first NFL Playoffs berth in nearly two decades. Baker Mayfield came into his own in the second half of the season, averaging 285 passing yards to go along with  11 scores and just 1 interception while posting an average passer rating of 107.1 over the final five weeks.

#7 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (11-5)

The Colts were one of the more confusing units in NFL 2020, at times imperious, unbeatable – at one point the #1 DVOA team in the NFL – and others, looking incredibly susceptible to defeat by far less talented teams. On paper – and in the front office – one of the strongest franchises in the league, the Colts had to wait until the final day of the regular season to stamp their ticket to the NFL Playoffs.

THE REST

The Miami Dolphins were one of the biggest improvers of the year, doubling their 5-win tally from 2019 to sit just outside the NFL Playoffs bubble in 2020. With plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, and another impressive draft haul coming up, next season looms as their best chance of a postseason appearance since 2016. The Las Vegas Raiders were another one of those teams who teased their way through the season, defeating the likes of the Chiefs and Saints, but defeated by non-playoff teams in the Patriots, Falcons, Jets and Chargers.

The New England Patriots missed the Playoffs for just the fourth time in 20 years, with their 7 wins representing their worst output since going 5-11 in 2000. An offseason of questions and soul searching beckons in Boston. Black Monday signalled the end of Anthony Lynn’s tenure in LA, with the Los Angeles Chargers also winning just 7 games. With presumptive Offensive Rookie of the Year Justin Herbert at the helm, the Chargers were in game-winning positions in many of their defeats, with six of nine losses coming by 7 points or less.

The Denver Broncos (5-11) performed just about to expectation, while the Cincinnati Bengals (4-12) were delivered some rotten luck with #1 draft pick, Joe Burrow, suffering a torn ACL just 10-games into his rookie campaign. It was the Houston Texans (4-12) who provided the NFL’s biggest downfall with a win-loss differential of -6 on last season’s 10-win season. The Texans are in a world of salary cap hell moving forward, as well as being on the hunt for a new Head Coach and General Manager after the firing of Bill O’Brien following a horrific 0-4 start to the season.

The New York Jets (2-14) and Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15) terminated the employment of HC’s Adam Gase and Doug Marrone, respectively, on Black Monday, after a hard-fought tussle for the consolation prize of the next #1 draft pick star – likely to be Clemson QB, Trevor Lawrence – with the Jets somehow, inexplicably defeating two playoff teams consecutively (Rams and Browns) in Weeks 14 & 15 to rule them out of the sweepstakes. Just about sums up their season.

 

WEEK 1 NFL PLAYOFFS:

#1 seed Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers have the bye for Wildcard Weekend.

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills

LA Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Football Team

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans

Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Hosts of The Punt Return Podcast, Nick Splitter and Josh Wye analyse each of the games on Wildcard Weekend. For more detail and all the numbers, statistics, picks and analysis, listen to The Punt Return on Spotify, iTunes or wherever you get your podcasts.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ BUFFALO BILLS

The Colts had to wait until the very last day of the regular season to ensure their place in the NFL Playoffs, but actually enter the postseason in good form having won 6 of their last 8. Their strong finish to the season included the scalps of fellow playoff contenders Green Bay and Tennessee (twice), ending their regular season with a respectable 11-5 record. 

The Buffalo Bills, similarly, are rolling, with a six-game winning streak in the books. The big improvers offensively in 2020, the Bills transformed their passing game with the addition of Stefon Diggs (1,535 yards, 8 TDs) and the increased production of the NFL’s most improved player, QB Josh Allen, amassing 501 points during the regular season, which set a franchise record as well as being the NFL’s second-highest return. The Bills 13-3 record was accompanied by a massive +126 point differential which was the second best return in the AFC.  

Scarily for the Colts, Buffalo’s defense clicked into gear in the second half of the season too, owning the #1 overall rank in weighted DVOA (efficiency weighted more heavily to recent performances) to go along with their #4 DVOA offense.

The Colts have performed admirably against high-powered offensive units in 2020, earning important wins over the likes of Green Bay, Tennessee, Houston (twice) and the Raiders, however their defense has ranked in the bottom third of the league in key passing metrics such as Yards per Attempt (#21), Yards per Game (#20) and allowed 53 completions of 20+ yards (#23).

Buffalo are red hot at the moment, but if the Colts defense can keep Allen and co at bay, it’ll go  a long way to earning them a return to the Divisional Round.

@nicksplitter’s tip: Bills by 6
@jwyeNFL’s tip: Bills by 10

Stats Insider says:

More detailed analysis and preview on The Punt Return Podcast (#INDvsBUF: 34 mins)

LA RAMS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

These two split their regular season record 1-1 with the home side emerging victorious on both occasions. The Seahawks are in better form, going 6-1 over their last seven, with the only blemish a surprise home defeat by the New York Giants at CenturyLink Field. The Rams on the other hand have gone just 4-3 in their last seven, with victories over Tampa Bay, New England and Arizona (twice) punctuated by defeats to the Seahawks and non-playoff teams in the 49ers and Jets.

The Rams might just have the best player on the field, with DT Aaron Donald having another stellar season, accumulating 45 tackles (14 for a loss) and 13.5 sacks on the year. Donald alone goes a huge way to explaining LA’s #4 ranked defense (according to Football Outsiders) with the Rams conceding a total of just 296 points (#1) in their 16 regular season games. Having said that, Football Outsiders also also ranked the Rams defensive schedule the 7th easiest for the season.

On the other side, first-half MVP fancy Russell Wilson leads the leagues #6 most efficient offense according to DVOA, having faced the league’s 5th hardest schedule for offenses, which holds them in good stead to face Aaron Donald and the Rams vaunted defensive unit, while the Seahawks have won each of their last 10 postseason games at CenturyLink Field.

@nicksplitter’s tip: Seahawks by 3
@jwyeNFL’s tip: Rams by 1

Stats Insider says:

More detailed analysis and preview on The Punt Return Podcast (#LAvsSEA: 41 mins)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM

As Washington’s Defensive Rookie of the Year contender, Chase Young, ran off the field following their victory over the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 17, he shouted – to anyone within earshot – “Tom Brady! I’m coming! I want Tom!” with the six-time Super Bowl champion’s head coach Bruce Arians warning the young star to “be careful what you wish for.”

Young has spent his entire life watching now-Buccaneers QB Tom Brady ply his trade – Brady is in his 21st year in the NFL, Young, his 21st year on the planet, so it’s no wonder he’s excited and looking forward to facing the 43-year old, however, Arians has a point. 

Brady was the epitome of a Top-10 QB in 2020, throwing for 4,633 yards (#3 in the NFL – his 5th highest single-season total) and 40 TDs (#2 in the NFL – his 2nd best total), he ranked #9 in both Passer Rating and QBR, leading the Bucs to the #3 DVOA offense in 2020. And it’s not just the offense that’s firing in Tampa Bay, with the defense finishing the regular season with the fourth-most sacks of any team in 2020, while averaging the second-most quarterback pressures per game.

Shaq Barrett returns off the COVID-19 list for the Bucs, too, which begs the questions – where are the points going to come from for Washington? While the Football Team’s defense is indeed elite – ranked #3 by Football Outsiders’ DVOA – their offense ranks last in the entire NFL, despite the inspiring comeback by QB Alex Smith.

@nicksplitter’s tip: Bucs by 9

@jwyeNFL’s tip: Bucs by 17
Stats Insider says:

More detailed analysis and preview on The Punt Return Podcast (#TBvsWFT: 48 mins)

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

The Ravens are on fire – on a five-game winning streak heading into the playoffs, and reigning MVP Lamar Jackson has been the catalyst for their revival, posting an average passer rating of 110.6, with an 11:3 touchdown to interception ratio, in addition to four scores on the ground over that 5-week period.

Speaking of being on fire, Tennessee’s Derrick Henry is the definition of that phrase at the moment, becoming just the eighth player in the single-season 2,000-rushing-yards club this season (2,027 rushing yards – #5 in NFL history), while rattling home 17 touchdowns on the ground for a new career high. 

Fun stat: Derrick Henry had more rushing yards in 2020 than 23 franchises.

While both rushing defenses sit in the middle of the pack according to Football Outsiders’ rankings, it’s in the ratings themselves where we see the big difference between the two, with the Ravens ground defense a whopping 9% more efficient than the Titans when defending the run.

Having said that, the other main difference between the two franchises are their passing games, with Tennessee ranked #4 with Ryan Tannehill under center, and Baltimore just 17th, an incredible 25.6 percentage points worse off.

The Titans have been the Ravens’ achilles heel over the last few years, able to exploit the Baltimore defense to great success, having won the last two outings – including a 16-point thrashing in the 2019 Divisional Round – scoring 28+ points in both matchups.

@nicksplitter’s tip: Titans by 7

@jwyeNFL’s tip: Ravens by 6

Stats Insider says:

More detailed analysis and preview on The Punt Return Podcast (#BALvsTEN: 55 mins)

CHICAGO BEARS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

While the Bears improved offense helped them to win three out of their last four games to sneak a wild card spot, they should be no match for the #2 seed New Orleans Saints. 

One of the best teams in the NFL in all facets of the game (Football Outsiders rank: Offense #7, Defense #2, Special Teams #5) these Saints barely have a weakness the Bears are capable of exploiting.

If Mitch Trubisky can continue his surprisingly solid form ( 97.8 passer rating over the last 6 weeks) then maybe they could cause an upset by putting up some quick points early and defending a total, but that will be an extremely tough ask with New Orleans ranked inside the league’s Top-3 for pass (#3) and run (#2) defense.

@nicksplitter’s tip: Saints by 14

@jwyeNFL’s tip: Saints by 10

Stats Insider says:

More detailed analysis and preview on The Punt Return Podcast (#CHIvsNO: 61 mins)

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Some big COVID-19 outs for the Cleveland Browns, with impressive rookie head coach, Kevin Stefanski, and – on the other end of the spectrum – the longest tenured Cleveland Brown, three-time Pro Bowl guard, Joel Bitonio, both sidelined for Cleveland’s first postseason appearance since they lost a Wild Card game against the Steelers in 2002.

Somewhat of an offensive genius, Stefanski has overseen the best performances of QB Baker Mayfield since his rookie season, while the Browns offense has graduated from a rank of #20 last season to a Top-10 unit this campaign. Despite this improvement and a winning record, Cleveland actually finished the regular season with a negative points differential (-11). With their well-known defensive frailties, can the Browns put up enough points without Stefanski’s play-calling to worry TJ Watt and the Steelers’ #1 ranked defense?

The Steelers have issues to get past, too. Having started the season 11-0, they lost four out of their last five – including their final-week loss to the Browns which handed Cleveland a first playoff appearance in 18 years. 

While the Steelers defensive unit is indeed, incredible, their offensive play has left something to be desired. The Pittsburgh ground game is one of the worst in the league, while veteran QB Ben Roethlisberger posted just a 94.1 passer rating (#19th) and 60.8 QBR (#22nd), which ranked behind the likes of Gardner Minshew, Mitchell Trubisky and Daniel Jones.

The Browns defeated the Steelers a week ago, despite already missing a host of starters and staff, with the Steelers resting and managing a number of starters too.

These games are always hard fought and should be close throughout.

@nicksplitter’s tip: Steelers by 3

@jwyeNFL’s tip: Steelers by 7

Stats Insider says:

More detailed analysis and preview on The Punt Return Podcast (#CLEvsPIT: 66 mins)

Who have you got on #WildcardWeekend?

Listen to The Punt Return Podcast on Spotify, iTunes or wherever you get your podcasts.